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Capitol Trace v1.0
SYSTEM ONLINE
CLASSIFICATION: PUBLIC
2026-07-15

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Enter SCIF
2026 Election Cycle

Race Ratings

Competitive race assessments for Senate, House, and Governor contests. Track which seats are in play and how the political landscape is shifting heading into November 2026.

DR

32

Total Rated

3

Toss-ups

4

Lean/Likely D

6

Lean/Likely R

Delaware

Chris Coons (D)

Safe D
2020: D+18.6↔ Stable
Corporate lawForeign policy

Illinois

Dick Durbin (D)

Safe D
2020: D+16.7↔ Stable
Criminal justiceImmigration

Massachusetts

Ed Markey (D)

Safe D
2020: D+33.4↔ Stable
ClimateTech regulation

Oregon

Jeff Merkley (D)

Safe D
2020: D+17.5↔ Stable
HousingEnvironment

New Jersey

Cory Booker (D)

Safe D
2020: D+15.8↔ Stable
Criminal justicePharma pricing

Virginia

Mark Warner (D)

Safe D
2020: D+12.0↔ Stable
Tech economyNational security

Rhode Island

Jack Reed (D)

Safe D
2020: D+33.5↔ Stable
DefenseEducation

Minnesota

Tina Smith (D)

Safe D
2020: D+5.2↔ Stable
HealthcareAgriculture

Colorado

John Hickenlooper (D)

Likely D
2020: D+9.3↔ Stable
Water rightsCost of livingEnergy

New Hampshire

Jeanne Shaheen (D)

Likely D
2020: D+15.7→ Shifted Right
Opioid crisisProperty taxesHealthcare

Michigan

Gary Peters (D)

Lean D
2020: D+1.7→ Shifted Right
Auto industryManufacturingGreat Lakes

Maine

Susan Collins (R)

Lean D
2020: R+8.6← Shifted Left
Open Seat
FisheriesHealthcareBipartisanship

Georgia

Jon Ossoff (D)

Toss-up
2020: D+1.2→ Shifted Right
Voting rightsTech economyImmigration

North Carolina

Thom Tillis (R)

Toss-up
2020: R+1.8← Shifted Left
Open Seat
EducationMilitary basesBanking

Arizona

Mark Kelly (D)

Toss-up
2020: D+2.4→ Shifted Right
Border securityWaterDefense

Iowa

Joni Ernst (R)

Lean R
2020: R+6.6← Shifted Left
AgricultureEthanolVeterans

Alaska

Dan Sullivan (R)

Lean R
2020: R+12.4← Shifted Left
Oil drillingFisheriesMilitary

Texas

John Cornyn (R)

Lean R
2020: R+9.6← Shifted Left
Open Seat
Border securityEnergyImmigration

South Carolina

Lindsey Graham (R)

Likely R
2020: R+10.3↔ Stable
MilitaryJudiciaryManufacturing

Montana

Steve Daines (R)

Likely R
2020: R+10.0↔ Stable
Public landsMiningAgriculture

Kansas

Pat Roberts (R)

Likely R
2020: R+11.3← Shifted Left
Open Seat
AgricultureAviationTrade

Kentucky

Mitch McConnell (R)

Safe R
2020: R+19.7↔ Stable
Open Seat
CoalJudiciaryMilitary

Louisiana

Bill Cassidy (R)

Safe R
2020: R+38.5↔ Stable
EnergyCoastal erosionHealthcare

Mississippi

Cindy Hyde-Smith (R)

Safe R
2020: R+9.8↔ Stable
AgricultureMilitaryHealthcare

Nebraska

Ben Sasse (R)

Safe R
2020: R+25.3↔ Stable
Open Seat
AgricultureTradeEducation

Oklahoma

James Lankford (R)

Safe R
2020: R+25.1↔ Stable
EnergyImmigrationReligious liberty

Tennessee

Bill Hagerty (R)

Safe R
2020: R+23.3↔ Stable
Auto industryTradeImmigration

West Virginia

Shelley Moore Capito (R)

Safe R
2020: R+43.3↔ Stable
CoalOpioid crisisInfrastructure

Wyoming

Cynthia Lummis (R)

Safe R
2020: R+46.1↔ Stable
EnergyPublic landsCryptocurrency

Idaho

Jim Risch (R)

Safe R
2020: R+28.1↔ Stable
AgriculturePublic landsWater

South Dakota

Mike Rounds (R)

Safe R
2020: R+25.8↔ Stable
AgricultureMilitaryTrade

Arkansas

Tom Cotton (R)

Safe R
2020: R+33.6↔ Stable
AgricultureMilitaryImmigration

Ratings are analytical assessments, not predictions or endorsements. Data reflects the 2026 election cycle.